Philippine E-Journals

Forecasting Enrollment: A Substitute to Career Guidance Campaign

Joefel T. Libo-on | Al M. Gadon

 

Abstract:

The use of forecasting models is essential for advanced decision-making and planning. The conduct of the career guidance campaign of guidance counselors and teachers has been a challenging task in a time of community and border restriction. This study was conducted to determine factors that can predict and forecast the number of Junior High School enrollees based on the eleven-year historical records. The data were gathered from the school registrar, guidance counselor of Tanagan National High School, and Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The unemployment rate, sex, parents' educational attainment, honors, the distance of the school from home, parent's income, employment of parents, and government beneficiaries are found to be significant predictors of enrollment. There were two forecasting models found and by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) by structural equation modeling (SEM), the most appropriate model is Ŷ = −1.714 + .335x4; where Y refers to the number of enrollment and x4 to parents' educational attainment. Experimental results yield an average of 1.26% difference in the forecasted and actual numbers of enrollment. The forecasted enrollment using the most appropriate model underwent validation, and the model forecast was accepted.