Correlation between incidence of dengue and climatic factors in the Philippines: An ecological study

Catherine Danielle  Duque-Lee,; Ann Kashmer  D. Yu,; Sophia Isabel  E. Ytienza,; Airees Mae  D. Yu,; Vincent Christopher  S. Yu,; Keith Alexius  K. Wangkay,; Maria Antonia   R. Wong,; Marielle Alyanna  b. Zamudio,; Eljine Mae  T. Zhang,; Wally  D. Yumul,; Zakhira Maye  R. Zipagan,; Arianna Krystelle  R. Yaranon,; Jake Byron  C. Zapanta,; Gija  B. Ysip,

Correlation between incidence of dengue and climatic factors in the Philippines: An ecological study

Abstract:

Introduction Dengue continues to be a major health concern in the Philippines. This study aimed to establish trends and correlations between the incidence of dengue and rainfall, humidity and temperature, respectively, in the different regions. Methods Using 2018 records obtained from DOH and PAGASA, correlations were made between monthly measurements of climatic factors and the incidence of dengue using Pearson’s r, while maps and interpolations were generated using quantum geographical information system software. Results There was a significant positive but weak correlation between the incidence of dengue and rainfall (r = 0.379, 95% CI 0.255, 0.491; p < 0.001) and humidity (r = 0.215, 95% CI 0.080, 0.342; p = 0.002). There was a significant negative but weak correlation between the incidence of dengue and temperature (r = -0.145, 95% CI -0.277, -0.008; p = 0.039). A strong positive correlation was noted between the incidence of dengue, and rainfall and humidity, respectively, in several regions. Multiple regression indicates that rainfall, humidity and temperature are poor predictors of the incidence of dengue (R2 = 0.1436, 0.0461 and 0.0209, respectively). Conclusion This study showed overall a significant but weak correlation between an increased incidence of dengue and heavy rainfalls and high relative humidity, and a weak negative correlation for temperature. A high positive correlation of an increased incidence of dengue and heavy rainfalls and high relative humidity was observed in several regions.

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